科技服务业产出测算：指标确立、数据收集与未来预测

科技服务业产出测算是对科技服务业产出数据的统计与分析，加强科技服务业产出数据的规范统计和应用分析可为我国政府调整产业政策提供重要数据支撑。以科技服务业产出测算为研究对象，结合学者观点、国家标准及各级政府相关产业政策，提出将分支产业作为初始指标的横向统计思路，构建科技服务业产出测算指标体系。在数据收集方面，强调要做好“收”与“填”两个基本工作；在指标确立和数据收集基础上，进一步提出未来预测的两种方法，以此作为科技服务业产出数据预测的初步探索；提出应从统一数据统计标准、完善数据调查与公开制度、加强数据资源开发3个方面建立健全我国科技服务业产出数据测量与管理体制机制。     

Fuzzy modelling of static system optimum traffic assignment problem having multi origin-destination pair

Traffic congestion is an unpreventable problem to avoid in a transportation network and it has negative effects on traffic accident, time wasting, traffic delay and safety problem. Besides, in transportation networks, drivers do not want to deal with traffic jam while traversing between specified origin-destination pair. Therefore, traffic assignment (TA) is imperative to improve traffic management, transportation safety, time, and cost savings. System Optimum Traffic Assignment Problem (SOTAP) is a kind of TA model which aims to minimize the total system travel time on the network, and satisfies the flow conservation constraints. To model the SOTAP more realistically, the imprecise parameters can be taken as fuzzy. Therefore, in this paper, we focus on converting the conventional SOTAP to a fuzzy quadratic programming problem (QPP) which is named System Optimum Fuzzy Traffic Assignment Problem (SOFTAP). Here, link travel time is expressed with BPR function as generally used in the literature by converting to fuzzy except link-dependent parameters. Thus, the nonlinear objective function of SOFTAP is expressed in terms of fuzzy link flows and fuzzy link travel times. A solution approach from the literature is modified to the reconstructed SOFTAP.     

高校跨学科创新团队知识互动程度评价研究

知识互动程度评价对改善高校跨学科创新团队知识互动具有重要意义。在界定高校跨学科创新团队知识互动及知识互动程度内涵的基础上，创新性地从知识互动深度、互动广度、互动时间3个维度建立知识互动程度评价指标体系。进一步地，采用三角模糊权重、熵权和模糊积分相结合的方法，构建知识互动程度评价模型。最后，选取一所高校跨学科创新团队进行实例分析，验证评价模型的可操作性，可为高校跨学科创新团队知识互动程度评价提供一个新视角。     

Sustainable efficiency drivers in Eurasian airports: Fuzzy NDEA approach based on Shannon's entropy

This research explores the physical infrastructure and flight consolidation efficiency drivers of Eurasian airports regarding their infrastructure and movement productivity levels. A novel Fuzzy Double-Frontier Network DEA (FDFNDEA) model is proposed to investigate the relationship between desirable (freight and passenger turnovers) and undesirable (pollutant emission levels due to aircraft movements) outputs against the respective infrastructure usage, fuel consumed, and movements performed at each of the 23 Eurasian airports from 2000 to 2018. This balance between desirable and undesirable outputs emerges spatially and temporally due to the evolution of the airport system's productive resources at each one of the Eurasian countries over the period observed. Shannon's entropy is used as the cornerstone to quantify the input and output vagueness of this evolution in Triangular Fuzzy Numbers (TFN), thus allowing the accurate building of alternative optimistic and pessimistic double-frontier efficiency. Differently from previous research, Shannon's entropy is the key for measuring input and output vagueness levels in light of the maximal entropy principle. This principle states that the distribution that best represents the current state of knowledge is the one with largest entropy. Maximal entropy yields bias-free decision-making in the sense that the input/output distributional profiles for Eurasian airports contain the maximal possible heterogeneity, working as a robust or best/worst-case scenario against eventual unconsidered assumptions. Hence, optimistic and pessimistic Malmquist Productivity Indexes (MPI) for overall and each stage productivity results are subsequently regressed against contextual variables related to airport characteristics and regional socio-demographic and economic indicators of each Eurasian country using bootstrapped Cauchy regressions. The findings revealed the spatial heterogeneity of productivity factors and airport performance across Eurasia. Results also demonstrated the negative impact of income inequality and the positive impact of private participation on technological progression in the Eurasian airport industry.     

跨界创新在突破性技术创新模糊前端的作用机制

基于“互联网+”大背景，跨界创新成为实现突破性技术创新的重要形式。通过现有文献分析，构建了跨界创新在突破性技术创新模糊前端的作用模型，并运用案例研究法，以无人驾驶汽车为例对模型进行释义。研究表明，跨界创新在突破性技术创新模糊前端起到重要作用，跨界创新可分为跨界搜索与跨界合作，跨界搜索有助于创意搜集和创意筛选，识别突破性技术创新机会；跨界合作有助于提升研发效率和成功率；跨界搜索与跨界合作相辅相成，共同致力于突破性技术研发成功。     

Software for Learning and for Doing Statistics

The community of statisticians and statistics educators should take responsibility for the evaluation and improvement of software quality from the perspective of education. The paper will develop a perspective, an ideal system of requirements to critically evaluate existing software and to produce future software more adequate both for learning and doing statistics in introductory courses. Different kinds of tools and microworlds are needed. After discussing general requirements for such programs, a prototypical ideal software system will be presented in detail. It will be illustrated how such a system could be used to construct learning environments and to support elementary data analysis with exploratory working style.     

不同财务管理目标下业绩评价选择及其关系处理

从财务管理目标出发考察企业业绩评价方法的演变过程，是为了在它们之间建立一种联系。不同的财务管理目标下，企业的业绩评价选择会有很大的差异，而其总体趋势是选择综合业绩评价方法。在不同的财务管理目标下选择不同的业绩评价指标时，又要处理好三对关系：短期发展与长期发展、局部利益与全局利益、财务指标与非财务指标。     

A Pricing and Hedging Comparison of Parametric and Nonparametric Approaches for American Index Options

This article investigates the extent to which options on theAustralian Stock Price Index can be explained by parametricand nonparametric option pricing techniques. In particular,comparisons are made of out-of-sample option pricing performanceand hedging performance. The dataset differs from many of thoseused previously in the empirical options pricing literaturein that it consists of American options. In addition, a broaderspectrum of techniques are considered: a spline-based nonparametrictechnique is considered in addition to the standard kernel techniques,while the performance of a Heston stochastic volatility modelis also considered. Although some evidence is found of superiorperformance by nonparametric techniques for in-sample pricing,the parametric methods exhibit a markedly better ability toexplain future prices and show superior hedging performance.     

Multiple generation product life cycle predictions using a novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method

Product life cycle (PLC) prediction plays a crucial role in strategic planning and policy definition for high-technology products. Forecast methodologies which can predict PLCs accurately can help to achieve successful strategic decision-making, forecasting, and foresight activities in high-technology firms, research institutes, governments, and universities. Over the past few decades, even though analytic framework strategies have been proposed for production, marketing, R&D (research and development), and finance, aiming at each stage of PLCs, forecast methodologies with which to predict PLCs are few. The purpose of this research is to develop a novel forecast methodology to allow for predictions of product life time (PLT) and the annual shipment of products during the entire PLC of multiple generation products. A novel two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis method is proposed in this paper. In the first stage, the product life-time of the specific generation to be analyzed will be predicted by the fuzzy piecewise regression line that is derived based upon the product life-time of earlier generations. In the second stage of the forecast methodology, the annual shipment of products of the specified generation will be predicted by deriving annual fuzzy regression lines for each generation, based upon the historical data on the earlier generations' products. An empirical study predicting the life-time and the annual shipment of the 16 Mb (Mega bit) DRAM (Dynamic Random Access Memory) PLC is illustrated to validate the analytical process. The results demonstrate that two-stage fuzzy piecewise regression analysis can predict multiple generation PLT and PLC precisely, thereby serving as a foundation for future strategic planning, policy definitions and foresights.     

高技术企业业绩评价指标体系的五维度框架设计

业绩评价已成为政府、市场和企业普遍关注的现实问题，指标体系是业绩评价的基础，指标体系构建的好坏直接影响到业绩评价的效果。高技术企业业绩的评价应结合高技术企业的特点，构建财务、产品与技术创新、智力资本开发、价值链流程、可持续发展五个维度的评价指标体系。